The age of disruption: Quintet unveils midyear investment outlook

fr en de

“Counterpoint” highlights dynamics that will drive the global economy, financial markets and key asset classes over the second half of 2022 and beyond.

<< Back
21/06/2022 |
  • Ilario Attasi (L)  Nicolas Sopel (R) - Quintet Private Bank

    Ilario Attasi, Group Head of Investment Advisors, et Nicolas Sopel, Senior Macro Strategist

In a world characterized by lower growth and higher inflation – fueled by factors such as the war in Ukraine, ongoing supply chain disruptions and lingering COVID risks – investors will continue to grapple with uncertainty. That includes downside risks such as a potential recession in the euro area, especially if the war in Ukraine escalates, and possibly excessive US Federal Reserve tightening, which would put the brakes on the world’s largest economy. Amidst so much uncertainty, investors are understandably nervous about the outlook for corporate profitability and investment returns.

Beyond many of today’s worrying headlines, however, lie significant long-term opportunities linked to this age of disruption. Both Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic have spurred reshoring, leading to greater investment in the supply side of domestic economies. Energy insecurity is contributing to the green transition. And despite a rocky first half for technology stocks, themes such as cybersecurity, robotics and automation may go from strength to strength.

Those are the views of Ilario Attasi and Nicolas Sopel, Group Head of Investment Advisors and Senior Macro Strategist, respectively, at Quintet Private Bank. The European wealth manager today released its midyear Counterpoint, its forecast for the global economy, financial markets and key asset classes. In that report – reflecting expectations of worldwide growth of 3.3% in 2022 (down from 5.8% in 2021) and global inflation of 7.8% (up from 4.6% in 2021) – Quintet highlights five core convictions, including the implications for investors.

The firm identifies a range of structural micro and macro trends, which accelerated following the pandemic and Ukraine conflict, and will likely disrupt:

1. COMPANIES | WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH

The best companies can thrive during periods of uncertainty, like today, including by planting the seeds for the next season of growth. That requires long-term focus and flexibility, especially financial flexibility. “For those reasons,” said Attasi, “we have a strong preference for companies with strong balance sheets and high levels of free cash flow. Financial strength gives quality growth companies the flexibility and opportunity to continue to invest through a downturn.”

2. SECTORS | RESHORING, RESTORING, REASSURING

Governments and companies are taking active steps to address the frailties exposed by decades of offshoring and imbalanced economics. “This will spur significant investments across strategically important industries, leading to more robust supply chains, improved national security and greater energy independence,” said Sopel. “In emerging markets, China has long focused on rebalancing its economy, increasing its domestic focus and upgrading its manufacturing sector on the value chain.” For Sopel, these trends are likely to be important drivers of equity returns over the coming year.

3. THE ECONOMY | LEARNING TO LIVE WITH INFLATION

Global inflation is expected to reach 7.8% for the full year, then slow to roughly 5% in 2023. Even if that is still above levels during the pre-COVID decade – which was characterized by fiscal austerity and balance-sheet repair – central banks should be able to slow the pace of tightening next year, following several rate increases this year. “Over the longer term,” said Sopel, “any inflation coming from the green transition and more local supply chains is unlikely to be met with significant rate rises.”

4. ENERGY | RENEWABLE AND RELIABLE

Both fossil fuel and clean energy themes have outperformed the market since the February invasion of Ukraine, a de-risking approach that makes sense in a context where markets are focused on the short-term need to secure energy supplies. Over the longer term, however, investors will increasingly focus on cleantech as enthusiasm for fossil fuels diminishes. “Clean energy equities have outperformed the market since the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015,” noted Attasi. “This decade, the divergence between clean energy equities and fossil fuel equities, which underperformed over the last decade, could be even more pronounced.”

5. TECHNOLOGY | POWERING THROUGH THICK AND THIN

Global technology stocks may be on track for their largest annual decline in 14 years, but long-term investors have good reason to continue to overweight technology-linked themes, especially through a diversified approach. “The world’s biggest challenges – climate change, energy dependence, pandemic risks, food security and supply chain resilience – can all potentially be addressed through technology,” Sopel said. “Meanwhile, some of the most exciting opportunities – the metaverse, artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles and genomics – are also inextricably linked to technology. The long-term outlook for tech and innovation remains robust.”

Quintet’s full Counterpoint 2022 Midyear Investment Outlook is available at: Quintet 2022 Midyear Outlook

Back to top  | << Back

Communiqués liés

Bonn
30/06/2022 Personnalités

Nouvel associé chez Bonn & Schmitt

Les Associés de BONN & SCHMITT ont le plaisir d’annoncer l’arrivée au 1er ...

Bonn & Schmitt Avocats
Andrew Faber Head of cybersecurity at G-Core Labs (002)
29/06/2022

G-Core Labs launches stand-alone solution to protect against...

G-Core Labs, in cooperation with Intel, developed an XDP-based solution (eBPF), ...

G-core Labs
Terrains Orange dans The Luxembourg Metaverse

Orange Luxembourg prend ses quartiers dans le metaverse avec...

Orange Luxembourg a fait l’acquisition de deux terrains au sein du nouveau met...

Orange Luxembourg
Julie Becker CEO LuxSE 01 web
29/06/2022

LuxSE named Stock Exchange of the Year by Environmental Fina...

The Luxembourg Stock Exchange (LuxSE) has been granted the ‘Stock Exchange of ...

Bourse de Luxembourg
Luxair

Luxair lève le voile sur sa nouvelle livrée, signée Marco...

Renaissance, avenir, tradition... tant d’illustrations qui fourmillent sur la ...

Luxair
Michael Sheahan (002)
29/06/2022

Apex Group wins mandate from Encore Capital Management

Apex Group Ltd. (“Apex” or “The Group”), a global financial services pro...

Apex

Il n'y a aucun résultat pour votre recherche

We use cookies to ensure the best experience on our website. By accepting you agree the use of cookies. OK Learn more